Bitcoin’s price could face additional downward pressure in September as two significant events loom on the horizon. The defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox is set to distribute $2.7 billion worth of Bitcoin to creditors, while the US government holds $12.1 billion worth of the cryptocurrency.

Mt. Gox Repayments:

• Distribution: Mt. Gox is scheduled to distribute the $2.7 billion in Bitcoin before the end of 2024 on the Kraken exchange.
• Market Impact: While the distribution is significant, crypto analytics provider Kaiko suggests that it is unlikely to cause major disruptions to the broader market due to Kraken’s liquidity profile.
• Investor Behavior: Mt. Gox creditors have been waiting for these repayments for over a decade. Many of them may be inclined to sell their Bitcoin, given the substantial appreciation in value since the exchange’s collapse.

US Government Holdings:

• Bitcoin Quantity: The US government currently holds over 203,000 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $12.1 billion.
• Selling Pressure: While the government has not indicated any plans to sell its Bitcoin holdings, the potential for future sales could introduce additional selling pressure to the market.

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Bitcoin’s Price Outlook:

• Summer Slump: The lack of liquidity typical of the summer months could continue into September, making it challenging for Bitcoin to break above the $63,900 resistance level.
• September Performance: Historically, Bitcoin’s average returns for September have been negative since 2013.

Conclusion:

The combined potential selling pressure from Mt. Gox repayments and the US government’s Bitcoin holdings could impact Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. While the exact timing and magnitude of these events remain uncertain, investors should be aware of the potential risks and adjust their strategies accordingly.